01 LIVE MACRO RATES
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
02 GLOBAL CRE INTELLIGENCE
FS_Labs Research identifies a "Modification Wave" as the primary driver for a 114bps drop in office delinquency. Institutional lenders are favoring 7-year extensions for trophy assets like Worldwide Plaza ($940M), opting for technical stability over immediate foreclosure.
2026 national RevPAR is holding at $100.63. Per internal research, a 3% ADR lift ($165.36) is sustaining values despite occupancy compression. Luxury segments in World Cup host cities are already commanding a 15% booking premium for June/July.
A 24% reduction in annual completions (down to 450k units) is beginning to alleviate Sun Belt supply pressure. FS_Labs projects Coastal rent growth to accelerate to 2.1% by Q3 as demand-absorption finally surpasses new starts.
Next FOMC decision: March 18. Internal research notes that the current 3.50% Fed Funds floor is keeping the 10Y Treasury range-bound, forcing a 10.5% Debt Yield floor for conduit CMBS execution.
03 SECTOR METRICS
04 IN FOCUS
Weekly Focus: As we enter March 2026, FS_Labs notes that while office delinquency has dipped slightly to 11.20% due to successful modifications, the structural "Refi-Gap" remains critical. With the 10Y Treasury stabilizing near 4.09%, lenders are enforcing a strict 10.5% Debt Yield test. We recommend monitoring the March 18 FOMC meeting for signals on liquidity pivots that could alleviate the 15-20% equity gaps now common in refinancing.
05 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
CURRENT MARKET POSTURE: RECAPITALIZATION PHASE
FS_Labs Research indicates the market has moved beyond price discovery. We are now in a structural Recapitalization Phase where Senior LTVs have retreated to 55-60%, creating a massive need for gap capital.
- ● The Refinancing Wall: $875B matures in 2026; roughly 45% of these assets are currently "underwater" relative to new underwriting standards.
- ● Bifurcation Alpha: There is a widening spread between financeable (Trophy/Data Center) and secondary assets. FS_Labs Research projects Class B office to lag recovery through 2027.
06 KNOWLEDGE VAULT
Formula: Revenue - OpEx
Net Operating Income: Pre-debt cash flow.
Formula: NOI / Debt Service
Target: 1.35x+.
Formula: NOI / Value
Market yield indicator.
Formula: Loan / Value
Leverage vs. Appraisal.
Formula: Loan / Total Cost
Leverage vs. Project Basis.
Formula: NOI / Loan Amount
2026 Floor: 10.5%+.
Formula: Revenue / Rooms Sold
Average Daily Rate.
Formula: ADR x Occ %
Revenue Per Available Room.
Formula: Total Dist. / Total Equity
Measures absolute return size.